Hurricane Florence Projected to be One of the Costliest Hurricanes in US History

9/12/18

By Ryan Herron, NC Biz News

As Hurricane Florence approaches landfall in the continental U.S. on Thursday morning, it has the potential to leave behind a trail of destruction that would place it atop the list of the costliest hurricanes in history.

The aggregated reconstruction cost value for the 758,657 homes in Florence’s projected path could reach $170.2 billion if the storm sustains its Category 4 status, according to data provided by the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic. This estimate assumes the need to completely rebuild every home in the storm’s path.

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 is the United States’ costliest hurricane with an inflation-adjusted cost of $160 billion.

Insurance losses are projected to be between $15 billion and $20 billion, according to catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions.

The state of North Carolina is estimated to lose 20,000 to 40,000 vehicles, according to Cox Automotive. The current path of the storm will cause it to move through regions with 3.9 million vehicles, 44 percent of North Carolina’s vehicles.

The amount of vehicle damage is incomparable to the mass amount of vehicle loss in hurricanes Harvey and Irma where 700,000 to 900,000 vehicles were estimated to be destroyed. The disparity in vehicle loss is in large part due to the vast difference in population and vehicle density in the hurricane affected regions.

The macroeconomic effects of such a hurricane include a small negative shock to U.S. gross domestic product as a result of a loss in the production capabilities of businesses.

However, GDP will understate the total economic effects of Florence due to the fact that property damage is not directly captured by GDP. It is indirectly captured in later periods through the materials and services needed to restore damaged regions.

The economic output of the affected regions is likely to decline significantly in the third quarter. The areas damaged by Katrina in 2005 saw annual declines in GDP growth of 20 percent following the storm.

Rebuilding efforts will help to spur the growth of the impacted regions during the fourth quarter of 2018.

As consumers rush into retailers and gas stations to fulfill their last-minute needs, businesses can expect to realize sales and price increases in response to the peak demand.

Gas prices rose 0.3 percent in North Carolina on Tuesday, according to GasBuddy. Storage tanks at many stations across the state ran dry, forcing stations to temporarily shut down until they could replenish their tanks.

Home improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s have already begun to see a spike in sales. A Chapel Hill, a Lowe’s location received a shipment of two truckloads of generators to account for the increased demand for the good. Home Depot’s stock price rose 1.5 percent and Lowe’s stock rose 1.58 percent on Tuesday.

If sustained, Hurricane Florence’s current conditions could lead to the destruction of billions of dollars in property that may create significant lasting economic effects to regions in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia.

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